On Tuesday, the United Nations (UN) predicted that India will be the fastest-growing major economy in the world by 2022. It projected a growth rate of 10.1% for the country, speculating that the growth outlook of 2021 was ‘highly fragile’ as India is going through the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
Earlier, a report published by the UN in January 2021 predicted a 5.9% growth for India, however, the mid-year update has projected economic growth of 10.1% for the calendar year 2022 which nearly doubles the earlier projection showing an upward growth for the country.
The report also speculates that with a growth rate of 10.1% in 2022, India may become the fastest-growing major economy in the world ahead of China which is projected to grow at 5.8% in 2022, a slowdown from 8.2 per cent in 2021.
Showing an upward trend, the mid-year report has predicted a growth rate of 7.5% in 2021 despite the 6.8% economic growth of last year.
What did the January report predict?
The January World Economic Situation and Prospects report had estimated that the Indian economy will contract by 9.6 per cent in 2020 and projected a 7.3 per cent growth rate in 2021 and a 5.9 per cent GDP growth in 2022.
It also stated that the growth outlook will remain ‘bleak’ for several countries in Africa, South Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean due to the coronavirus pandemic. The report further added that most developing nations will have a lesser growth rate in 2021 compared to 2019.
India’s economy may suffer due to second covid wave
Due to the second wave of coronavirus cases in the country, the public healthcare system is overwhelmed, the WESP report said.
The report also noted that, though the country expanded its vaccine eligibility criteria and ramped up the supply of vaccines across the nation, the problem of accessibility and distribution lingers due to the massive demand.
Stating that India’s growth outlook in 2021 is highly fragile, the report says, “growth may suffer due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic in the country.”
Asian Development Bank predicts India’s GDP growth at 11%
Earlier, in April, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its ‘Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 report, predicted that the Indian economy is likely to grow at 11% in the fiscal year 2021.
“India’s economy, meanwhile, is expected to grow 11.0 % in the fiscal year 2021, which ends on 31 March 2022, amid a strong vaccine drive. However, the recent surge in Covid-19 cases may put this recovery at risk,” the report said.
The ADO report also predicted India’s GDP to grow at 7% in the financial year 2022.
In order to put the world economy on the trajectory of a resilient recovery, it is imperative to ensure timely and universal access to COVID-19 vaccinations wherein global solidarity against fighting the COVID-19 pandemic is a must.